Which way will the vote swing? It’s headed a certain direction, if you know what I mean.

The MTV Video Music Awards will be hosted by comedian Kevin Hart at the Los Angeles Staples Center this evening, and as always both the list of nominees and tonight’s lineup is loaded with the hottest names in music. Everyone from Rihanna to Frank Ocean, Taylor Swift and Green Day will take to the stage in between award announcements, the result of which have been determined through public voting. While August 24th was the cutoff for most categories, two remain open right up until showtime, Most Share-Worthy Video and Best New Artist.

As for the latter, a look at the social data for the five nominees proves they definitely have earned their spot. Comparing the total Twitter following for New York indie rockers Fun., everybody’s second-favorite Canadian Carly Rae Jepsen, groundbreaking hiphopper Frank Ocean and brit pop sensations One Direction and The Wanted, all but the first are in the millions. One group truly stands out from the crowd, One Direction can boast more than 6 million followers.

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If these numbers are any indication, it should be a clean sweep for the pop heartthrobs who have stolen the hearts of young girls across the world, crooning about their beauty. But just because the former X-factor contestants have the biggest fan base by far, does that mean they are a shoe-in to take home the votes? 

A look at the statistics for Facebook Talking About, a token of who is on everybody’s mind right about now, doesn’t suggest otherwise. Again One Direction comes out on top, with more than 13.5 million people talking about them on the social network in the past two weeks, about 5 times as many as runner-up Carly Rae Jepsen.

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Provided that social stats are a clue and you are prone to the occasional gamble, this looks to be one of the safer bets you can make this year. 

Photo Credit: Screenshot VEVO

Liv Buli is the resident data journalist for music analytics company Next Big Sound. Buli is a graduate of New York University’s Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute and her work has appeared in Newsweek Daily Beast, The New York Times Local East Village, Westchester Magazine and more.